Virtual Water Conservation and Integrated Water-Resource Sustainability in Bahrain: A Modeling Framework and Case Study

Abstract

Bahrain is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Without permanent rivers, very little precipitation, heavily depleted aquifers and heavily dependent on energy-intensive desalination for drinking water. This research establishes and implements a unified framework of virtual water conservation and sustainable water management that integrates water footprint accounting, groundwater sustainability evaluation, desalination-energy-carbon relations, climate-adjusted demand modeling and digital water governance principles in a single indicator-based system. A national water-balance model includes virtual-water and water footprint accounting, groundwater mass-balance, specific energy and carbon intensity of desalination, and climate-adjusted demand model. Six sustainability metrics as Water Stress/Security Index, Groundwater Sustainability Index, Virtual Water Dependency Ratio, Carbon Intensity of Water Production, Net-Zero Water Index and Circular Water Index have been developed using the same framework and are evaluated in a representative reconstruction from 1990 to 2026 and a forecast from 2025 to 2050. Virtual-water imports are a critical component of the efficient water portfolio, much better than renewable domestic supplies, groundwater metrics show an oscillation from near-equilibrium to depletion and the carbon intensity depends on the energy source used for desalination. In five scenarios the net-zero and circular approach lead to the most positive impact on water security and decarbonization while the business-as-usual and climate-stress trajectories have an impact on groundwater sustainability. The strategy transforms virtual water from a trading concept to a water security tool and an easy to use, easily accessible way of accessing water for water-deficient Gulf economies looking to build climate-resilient, low-carbon water systems. unde omnis iste natus error sit voluptatem accusantium doloremque laudantium