Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Site-Specific Cancer Incidence in India: A Statistical Study Using Annual Cancer Registry Data (2015–2024)

Abstract

Cancer is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and its incidence continues to increase in many countries, including India. Monitoring temporal changes in the incidence of major cancers is essential for understanding disease burden, supporting healthcare planning, and informing cancer prevention and control strategies.This study aimed to analyse the temporal trends in site-specific cancer incidence among males and females in India from 2015 to 2024 and to evaluate changes in the incidence of major cancers using statistical methods.
Methods
A retrospective secondary data analysis was conducted using annual cancer incidence data for six major cancer sites: lung, mouth, and prostate cancers among males, and breast, cervix, and ovary cancers among females. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise annual incidence patterns. Linear regression analysis was performed to evaluate temporal trends over the study period, while Pearson correlation analysis assessed the relationships among cancer incidence patterns. Where appropriate, time-series forecasting methods may be applied to estimate future incidence trends. Statistical analyses were performed using IBM SPSS Statistics, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.
Results
The annual incidence of all six cancer types demonstrated an increasing trend during the study period. Female breast cancer consistently recorded the highest incidence, followed by female cervix cancer and male lung cancer. Regression analysis is expected to identify statistically significant positive trends across the study period, indicating a sustained increase in cancer incidence. Correlation analysis is expected to demonstrate strong positive associations among the annual incidence of the selected cancer types.
Conclusion
The findings highlight a persistent increase in the incidence of major cancers in India over the past decade. These results emphasise the need for strengthened cancer surveillance, early detection programmes, and evidence-based public health interventions. Statistical trend analysis provides valuable information for policymakers and healthcare professionals in planning future cancer control strategies.